EKOS polling data

Here is the new EKOS poll (.pdf) of 1,502 Canadians. I flipped through it and found these details interesting:

1. 60% of Canadians think that Stephane Dion should resign -- including 53% of Liberal voters. (I think that number would be even higher if it were a secret poll of the Liberal Parliamentary caucus.)

We know the Liberals don't think Dion is up for the job of leading the Liberals -- they pressured him to resign in the spring. So why is he good enough, in the caucus's judgment, to lead Canada?

2. Look at the voter intention stats on page 10. The Tories are at 42.2% nationally, compared to 23.6% for the Liberals. But look at Ontario: the Tories are at 46.6% and the Liberals are under 30. If you were a Liberal MP in Ontario -- other than, say, Bob Rae in Toronto Centre -- would you really vote non-confidence in Stephen Harper in January, if that meant a real chance of another election?

Take Joe Volpe, just for example. He's the Liberal MP from Eglinton Lawrence, which is a little further north than mid-town Toronto, but still south of Highway 401. The telephone area code is still 416.

In 2004, Volpe received a whopping 60% of the vote, 35% ahead of the Conservatives. In 2006 his vote declined to 53%, 23% ahead of the Tories. And this election, his vote fell again to 44% -- and the Conservative candidate, Joe Oliver, was just 2,000 votes behind, at 39%.

If you were Volpe, would you really vote non-confidence in Harper, and go to the polls -- perhaps under Dion -- in this political climate?

3. EKOS says Harper's bounce in the polls is easing off, and that, outside of his base, there is little appetite for him. I find those conclusions hard to justify; they seem like spin to downplay Harper's strength. He is 6% higher than he was in the election, and both of his national competitors are down. In a four party system (five including the Greens), it's extremely difficult to get 50% of the vote -- the last Canadian prime minister to do so was Brian Mulroney in 1984, who received 50.03% of the vote. But that was enough (in a three party system) to give him a record-breaking 211 seats. Jean Chretien's three majority government were won with 41.2%, 38.5% and 40.9%.

EKOS's numbers are more modest than other pollsters, such as COMPAS, which shows the Tories at more than 50%. Any way you slice it, though, it's a disaster for the opposition.